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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."